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name: fiscal-policy description: Fiscal policy — spending, taxation, debt sustainability. Cover multipliers, automatic stabilizers, debt/GDP dynamics.
Spending instruments:
Revenue instruments:
Discretionary vs automatic:
The fiscal multiplier measures how much GDP changes for each unit of fiscal stimulus or contraction:
Fiscal Multiplier = Change in GDP / Change in Government Spending (or Tax Revenue)
Spending multiplier (typical ranges):
Government investment: 1.0 - 2.5 (highest — creates productive capacity)
Government consumption: 0.6 - 1.5
Transfers to low-income: 0.5 - 1.2 (high MPC of recipients)
Transfers to high-income: 0.2 - 0.6 (lower MPC)
Tax multiplier (typical ranges):
Income tax cuts: 0.3 - 1.0 (lower than spending — some is saved)
Corporate tax cuts: 0.2 - 0.5 (uncertain investment response)
Payroll tax cuts: 0.4 - 0.8 (directly affects take-home pay)
Consumption tax cuts: 0.5 - 1.0 (depends on pass-through to prices)
Factors that increase the multiplier:
Factors that decrease the multiplier:
Mechanisms that automatically dampen business cycle fluctuations:
Revenue side:
Spending side:
Size of automatic stabilizers:
Debt dynamics equation:
Change in debt ratio = (r - g) / (1 + g) * d(t-1) + primary deficit
Where:
d = debt-to-GDP ratio
r = effective nominal interest rate on government debt
g = nominal GDP growth rate
r-g = interest-growth differential (critical variable)
If r < g: Debt ratio stabilizes or declines even with moderate primary deficits
If r > g: Primary surplus required to stabilize the debt ratio
Primary surplus needed to stabilize debt:
ps* = (r - g) / (1 + g) * d
Debt sustainability indicators:
| Indicator | Sustainable Range | Watch Level |
|---|---|---|
| Debt/GDP | < 60% (Maastricht) | > 90% |
| Primary balance/GDP | Surplus or small deficit | Deficit > 2% |
| Interest/Revenue | < 10% | > 15% |
| Gross financing needs/GDP | < 15% | > 20% |
| r - g differential | Negative | Positive and widening |
Fiscal space: The room a government has to increase spending or cut taxes without jeopardizing debt sustainability. Assessed through:
Approaches:
Fiscal rules (EU framework):
Country: __________ Year: __________
Actual Structural Cyclical
Revenue (% GDP) ____% ____% ____%
Expenditure (% GDP) ____% ____% ____%
Budget balance (% GDP) ____% ____% ____%
Primary balance (% GDP) ____% ____% ____%
Debt/GDP: ____%
Interest payments/GDP: ____%
Interest/Revenue: ____%
Gross financing needs/GDP: ____%
Interest-growth differential (r-g): ____%
Primary surplus to stabilize debt: ____%
Fiscal space assessment: [ ] Ample [ ] Moderate [ ] Limited [ ] Exhausted
=== DEBT/GDP PROJECTION ===
Base Case Adverse (r+200bp) Severe (r+200bp, g-2pp)
Year 0 (actual) ____% ____% ____%
Year 1 ____% ____% ____%
Year 2 ____% ____% ____%
Year 3 ____% ____% ____%
Year 5 ____% ____% ____%
Year 10 ____% ____% ____%
Assumptions:
Primary balance: ____% ____% ____%
Nominal growth (g): ____% ____% ____%
Effective interest (r): ____% ____% ____%
r - g: ____% ____% ____%