Design a retention playbook for Autostay — churn signal detection, engagement triggers, win-back campaigns, and lifecycle communication plans. Use when subscriber churn is increasing, planning retention initiatives, designing win-back campaigns, or building lifecycle automation.
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Design a comprehensive retention playbook for Autostay's car wash subscription service, covering churn signal detection, lifecycle engagement triggers, win-back campaigns, communication plans, and retention experiments.
Autostay — O2O 세차 구독 서비스
Given the following context and data: $ARGUMENTS
If the user provides data files (churn data, subscriber activity logs, NPS results), read and analyze them directly. Use the analysis to prioritize which playbook sections are most urgent.
Define the early warning signals that predict subscriber churn. Each signal should have a detection method and intervention timeline.
| Signal | Detection Criteria | Risk Level | Detection Method | Intervention Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage Drop | Wash frequency drops >50% vs subscriber's average over 2 weeks | High | Automated monitoring | 3-7 days |
| Downgrade Inquiry | Subscriber views plan comparison page or contacts support about downgrade | Medium | Event tracking + CRM | 24-48 hours |
| Service Complaints | 2+ negative reviews or support tickets in 30 days | High | Support ticket analysis | Immediate |
| Payment Failure | Failed payment attempt, card expired, insufficient funds | High | Payment processor alerts | Same day |
| Low Engagement | No app opens for 14+ days, no bookings for 21+ days | Medium | App analytics | 7-14 days |
| Negative NPS | NPS response of 0-6 (Detractor) | Medium-High | Post-wash survey | 24-48 hours |
| Seasonal Risk | Approaching 장마철 (rainy season) or winter — lower perceived wash value | Medium | Calendar-based | 2-4 weeks before |
| Contract End Approaching | 연간 plan within 30 days of renewal | Medium | Billing system | 30 days |
Composite Churn Risk Score: Combine signals into a single risk score (0-100) for each subscriber:
Design engagement touchpoints for each stage of the subscriber lifecycle:
Week 1: Onboarding (Critical)
| Day | Trigger | Action | Channel | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 0 | Subscription activated | Welcome message + first booking guide | Push + KakaoTalk | Set expectations |
| Day 1 | No booking yet | "Book your first wash" nudge with nearby partners | Push notification | First booking within 48h |
| Day 2 | First booking made | Booking confirmation + what to expect guide | KakaoTalk | Reduce no-show anxiety |
| Day 3 | First wash completed | Post-wash survey + "How was it?" | In-app + KakaoTalk | Collect feedback, build habit |
| Day 5 | First wash done | "Your car stays clean" — suggest booking frequency | Push notification | Establish rhythm |
| Day 7 | End of week 1 | Weekly summary + tips for getting the most from subscription | Reinforce value |
Week 2-4: Habit Formation
| Trigger | Action | Channel | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd wash completed | Celebrate milestone + share wash savings vs per-wash pricing | In-app message | Value reinforcement |
| No booking for 10 days | "Your car misses you" — personalized rebooking nudge | Push + KakaoTalk | Prevent usage decay |
| 3rd wash completed | Invite to rate favorite partner + earn loyalty points | In-app | Deepen partner connection |
| End of Month 1 | Monthly summary: washes completed, money saved, next month preview | Email + KakaoTalk | Value demonstration |
Month 2-3: Value Realization
| Trigger | Action | Channel | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wash frequency on target | Positive reinforcement + upgrade teaser (if monthly plan) | In-app | Upgrade consideration |
| Wash frequency declining | "Try a different partner" or "Schedule recurring bookings" | Push notification | Re-engage |
| 월간 plan renewal approaching | Upgrade offer: 연간 plan savings breakdown | KakaoTalk + Email | Convert to annual |
| Positive NPS response | Ask for referral + offer referral reward | In-app + KakaoTalk | Viral growth |
Month 4+: Retention & Expansion
| Trigger | Action | Channel | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 days as subscriber | Loyalty milestone celebration + exclusive benefit | KakaoTalk | Emotional connection |
| Consistent high usage | VIP recognition + premium partner access | In-app | Reward loyalty |
| Usage declining gradually | Proactive check-in: "Anything we can improve?" | KakaoTalk (personal) | Early churn prevention |
| 연간 renewal 60 days out | Early renewal offer with bonus (extra washes, discount) | Email + KakaoTalk | Lock in renewal |
| 연간 renewal 30 days out | Renewal reminder + savings summary for the year | KakaoTalk + Push | Ensure renewal |
Design specific win-back campaigns based on churn reason. Each scenario includes the offer, messaging, timing, and expected conversion rate.
Define the communication framework across the subscriber lifecycle:
Channel Mix & Usage:
| Channel | Best For | Frequency Limit | Personalization Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Push Notification | Urgent nudges, booking reminders, time-sensitive offers | Max 3/week | Medium (name, partner, timing) |
| KakaoTalk | Primary communication, offers, milestones, win-back | Max 4/month | High (full personalization) |
| Monthly summaries, detailed content, renewal notices | Max 2/month | Medium (segment-based) | |
| SMS | Payment failures, critical alerts, win-back last resort | As needed | Low (transactional) |
| In-App | Feature discovery, celebrations, contextual tips | Contextual | High (behavior-based) |
Communication Principles:
Monthly Communication Calendar Template:
| Week | Monday | Wednesday | Friday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Booking reminder (Push) | Tips/content (KakaoTalk) | — |
| Week 2 | — | Engagement nudge if inactive (Push) | — |
| Week 3 | Monthly summary (Email) | Partner spotlight (KakaoTalk) | — |
| Week 4 | — | Referral/upgrade prompt (In-app) | — |
Design 3-5 experiments to test retention hypotheses:
Track these metrics to monitor retention playbook effectiveness:
Primary Retention Metrics:
| Metric | Definition | Target | Review Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Subscriber Churn Rate | Churned / Start-of-month subscribers | <5% | Weekly |
| Net Revenue Retention (NRR) | (Start MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Start MRR | >100% | Monthly |
| 3-Month Retention Rate | Subscribers active at Month 3 / Subscribers at Month 0 | >65% | Monthly |
| 12-Month Retention Rate | Subscribers active at Month 12 / Subscribers at Month 0 | >40% | Quarterly |
Leading Indicators:
| Metric | Definition | Alert Threshold | Review Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Churn Risk Score Distribution | % of subscribers at Green/Yellow/Red risk | Red >15% | Weekly |
| Wash Frequency Trend | Avg washes/subscriber over rolling 4 weeks | <1.5/month | Weekly |
| First Wash Completion Rate | % of new subs completing first wash in 7 days | <65% | Weekly |
| NPS Trend | Rolling 30-day NPS | <30 | Monthly |
| Payment Failure Rate | Failed payments / Total payment attempts | >5% | Daily |
Win-Back Metrics:
| Metric | Definition | Target | Review Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win-Back Attempt Rate | Win-back campaigns sent / Total churned | >80% | Monthly |
| Win-Back Conversion Rate | Reactivated / Win-back campaigns sent | >10% | Monthly |
| Reactivated Subscriber Retention | % of won-back subs retained at 3 months | >50% | Quarterly |
| Win-Back Revenue | MRR from reactivated subscribers | Growing | Monthly |
Save the complete retention playbook as a markdown document with all six sections. Prioritize sections based on the user's most urgent retention challenge. Include implementation timelines and ownership assignments where possible.