simulation

Simulation Skill

Purpose

Provide the cognitive empathy toolkit that underlies great product judgment. Simulation is the capacity to mentally model how others think, feel, and act — the core skill that separates good PMs from great ones.

Based on Shreyas Doshi's Product Sense framework.

Three Components of Cognitive Empathy

1. Metacognition — Understanding Your Own Thinking

The ability to watch your own thought process and catch biases in real-time.

Practices:

• "What is causing this thought?" — Trace your reasoning backward
• "Why does this feeling exist?" — Separate emotion from analysis
• "Name your mind" — When your brain says "users will love this," ask which part of your brain is speaking (optimism? pattern matching? wishful thinking?)
• "Reward yourself for finding the cognitive bias behind past decisions" — Celebrate catching yourself, not being right

Product application:

• Before evaluating any feature: "What's my gut reaction, and what biases might drive it?"
• After any product decision: "Was I right for the right reasons, or right by luck?"
• During teardowns: "Am I evaluating this product, or projecting my preferences?"

2. Intellectual Flexibility — Updating Beliefs

The ability to change your mind when evidence warrants it.

The 5-Question Test (use when stuck on a position):

1. Have I been exactly right about everything? (No.)
2. Is there anyone in history more right than me on this? (Yes.)
3. Is it remotely possible that info I don't have could improve my view? (Yes.)
4. Given the stakes and ambiguity, is seeking that info worthwhile? (Evaluate.)
5. Is there a non-zero chance of a better decision with more input? (Usually yes.)

Product application:

• When you're certain about a product direction: Run the 5-question test
• When data contradicts your hypothesis: Celebrate the data, don't explain it away
• When a junior team member disagrees: Their fresh perspective might see what your experience blinds you to

3. Simulation — Modeling Others

The capacity to mentally envision how others think, feel, and act based on their unique context.

Techniques:

• Out of body experience: Physically imagine being the user. Where are they? What device? What mood? What just happened before this?
• "Wake up in the morning" test: Does this person wake up thinking about this problem? If not, your feature has an awareness problem before it has an adoption problem.
• Nth order effects: Go beyond first-order. If users do X, then Y happens, which causes Z. What does Z look like?

Null Hypotheses:

• Consumer: Users are lazy, selfish, vain, confused, and easily distracted
• B2B: Customer doesn't need your product, won't pay, won't deploy, won't use it

Products must overcome these defaults. Anything that doesn't is a weakness.

Motivation Theory Framework

Every user action is governed by:

Nudge × (Motivation − Friction)^Satisfaction = Adoption

Motivation Types

Type	Question	Example
Functional	What tasks do I want to perform?	"I need to track expenses"
Social	How do I want to be perceived?	"I want my team to see me as organized"
Emotional	How do I want to feel?	"I want to feel in control of my finances"
Personal	What does this say about me?	"I'm the kind of person who plans ahead"

Friction Types

Type	Questions to Ask
Comprehension	Do I understand this? Is the next action clear?
Decision	How many choices? How complex? What's the cost of being wrong?
Action	How hard to start? How hard to finish?
Habit	How inconsistent with my current behavior?
Emotional	What do I stand to lose? How anxious does this make me?

Nudge Types

Type	Source	Example
Intrinsic	Within the user	Personal motivation, habits, self-imposed rules
Extrinsic	From the product/environment	Notifications, social proof, defaults, urgency

Critical alignment: Nudges must match the dominant motivation type. A functional nudge ("save 2 hours") won't move a socially-motivated user ("your team is using this").

Satisfaction Checks

• Did it fulfill the promised job?
• Did it live up to expectations?
• Did it generate happy hormones?
• Did it give social validation?
• Did it make them feel smart?

Cognitive Bias Reference (Product-Relevant)

Biases That Affect Users

Bias	Product Impact	Design Response
Status quo	Users resist change	Make defaults good; minimize required changes
Loss aversion	Fear of losing > joy of gaining	Frame as "don't miss out" vs "you could get"
Social proof	People follow others	Show what others are doing
Anchoring	First number sticks	Set anchors intentionally
Endowment	People overvalue what they own	Get users to invest (personalize) early
Ambiguity aversion	Prefer known risk over unknown	Provide clear information, reduce uncertainty

Biases That Affect PMs

Bias	PM Impact	Mitigation
Confirmation	Seeking supporting evidence	Actively seek disconfirmation
Mimetic desire	Copying competitors	"Would I do this if no one else was?"
Sunk cost	Continuing failing projects	"If starting fresh, would I choose this?"
Planning fallacy	Underestimating effort	Use reference class forecasting
Survivorship	Learning only from successes	Study failures equally

How to Use This Skill

This skill is loaded as context by:

• /pm:teardown — for simulation and bias analysis
• /pm:simulate — for per-segment user modeling
• /pm:bias-check — for PM decision bias detection
• /pm:friction-log — for friction categorization
• /pm:motivation-map — for adoption equation analysis

It can also be invoked directly when any command needs to model user behavior or check cognitive biases.