Analyze System Command

You are initiating a systematic systems analysis. Follow the layered workflow to understand complex, interconnected problems and design effective interventions.

Core Principle

Small shifts at high leverage points beat massive efforts at low leverage points.

Systems are governed by archetypal structures. Recognize the pattern, apply the known intervention.

When to Use Systems Thinking

Use this when:

• Problems persist despite repeated fixes
• Solutions create new problems (unintended consequences)
• System behavior is counter-intuitive
• Multiple stakeholders with conflicting incentives
• Long delays between action and result
• "The harder we push, the harder the system pushes back"

Don't use when:

• Simple, isolated problems with clear cause-effect
• One-time decisions with immediate results
• Pure optimization without feedback dynamics

Systematic Analysis Workflow

Phase 1: Pattern Recognition (15-30 min)

Goal: Identify the dominant patterns driving behavior

1. Identify key variables (states, not actions)

   • What can increase or decrease?
   • What accumulates over time?

2. Map feedback loops

   • Reinforcing (R): Amplifies change
   • Balancing (B): Resists change

3. Find delays

   • Where does action → result take time?
   • Information delays? Material delays?

4. Recognize signatures

   • S-curve growth? Oscillation? Death spiral?

Phase 2: Archetype Matching (20-30 min)

Goal: Match to known patterns with proven solutions

Check against 10 archetypes:

Pattern	Signature
Fixes that Fail	Solution works temporarily, returns worse
Shifting the Burden	Quick fix prevents fundamental solution
Escalation	Two parties making it worse
Success to the Successful	Winner gets more resources
Tragedy of the Commons	Individual optimization degrades shared resource
Accidental Adversaries	Good intentions, mutual harm
Drifting Goals	Standards erode from complacency
Limits to Growth	Growth stops at constraint
Growth and Underinvestment	Growth stops from underinvestment
Eroding Goals	Standards erode from pressure

Diagnostic questions for each archetype guide identification.

Phase 3: Quantitative Analysis (45-60 min)

Goal: Calculate concrete predictions

Using stocks-and-flows modeling:

• What is current state?
• What is rate of change?
• When will crisis/opportunity hit?
• What is equilibrium?

Output: Specific numbers (e.g., "6.7 weeks to crisis at current rate")

Phase 4: Leverage Point Identification (20-30 min)

Goal: Find high-impact intervention points

Meadows' hierarchy (weakest to strongest): 12. Parameters (numbers, budgets) 11. Buffers (reserve capacity) 10. Structure (physical systems) 9. Delays (feedback timing) 8. Balancing loops (error correction) 7. Reinforcing loops (amplification) 6. Information flows (visibility) 5. Rules (incentives, constraints) 4. Self-organization (evolution) 3. Goals (system purpose) 2. Paradigms (mental models)

1. Transcending paradigms

Rule: Generate alternatives at multiple levels before choosing.

Phase 5: Intervention Design (30 min)

Goal: Design actionable interventions

For each proposed intervention:

• What leverage level?
• What archetype does it address?
• Prerequisites required?
• Expected resistance?
• Time to impact?

Phase 6: Communication Prep (30 min)

Goal: Create stakeholder-ready outputs

Behavior-over-time graphs:

• Current trajectory
• Intervention scenario
• With concrete numbers and dates

Analysis Output Format

# Systems Analysis: [Problem Domain]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentences: Pattern identified, key insight, recommended intervention]

## Pattern Recognition

### Key Variables
- [Variable 1]: [Description, measurement]
- [Variable 2]: [Description, measurement]

### Feedback Loops
- R1: [Description of reinforcing loop]
- B1: [Description of balancing loop]

### Delays
- [Delay 1]: [Duration, impact]

## Archetype Match

**Primary:** [Archetype name]
**Evidence:** [Why this pattern matches]
**Known intervention:** [What works for this archetype]

**Secondary (if applicable):** [Archetype name]

## Quantitative Predictions

- Current state: [Value]
- Rate of change: [Value/time]
- Crisis timing: [Date/duration]
- Equilibrium: [Value if no intervention]

## Leverage Analysis

| Level | Intervention | Expected Impact | Risk |
|-------|--------------|-----------------|------|
| [#] | [Description] | [Impact] | [Risk] |

## Recommended Intervention

**Primary action:** [Description]
**Leverage level:** [#] - [Level name]
**Why this level:** [Justification]

**Prerequisites:**
- [What must be in place first]

**Expected resistance:**
- [Where pushback will come from]

**Timeline:**
- [When impact expected]

## Behavior Over Time

[ASCII graph or description showing trajectories]

## Limitations

- [What wasn't analyzed]
- [Confidence gaps]
- [Recommended deeper analysis]

Time-Constrained Analysis

For 60-minute deadline:

Time	Activity
0-15 min	Pattern recognition (key variables, loops)
15-35 min	Archetype matching (check signatures)
35-50 min	Leverage points (generate 3+ options)
50-60 min	Summary + recommended intervention

Output: Pattern + archetype + recommended intervention Trade-off: No quantitative modeling

Cross-Pack Discovery

import glob

# For simulation implementation
sim_pack = glob.glob("plugins/yzmir-simulation-foundations/plugin.json")
if sim_pack:
    print("Available: yzmir-simulation-foundations for implementing models")

# For architecture analysis
arch_pack = glob.glob("plugins/axiom-system-architect/plugin.json")
if arch_pack:
    print("Available: axiom-system-architect for code architecture assessment")

Red Flags - Stop and Reconsider

Thought	Response
"Just add more resources"	Resource additions are lowest leverage (Level 12)
"This isn't a system, it's simple"	Persistent "simple" problems have hidden loops
"We don't have time for analysis"	Wrong action makes crisis worse
"Our situation is unique"	90% match known archetypes

Scope Boundaries

This command covers:

• Pattern recognition
• Archetype matching
• Leverage point identification
• Intervention design
• Stakeholder communication prep

Not covered:

• Detailed stock-flow calculations (use /map-dynamics)
• Implementation planning (use project management)
• Code architecture (use axiom-system-architect)