OSS Evaluation - Phase 6: Risk Assessment

Purpose

Synthesize findings from Phases 1-5 into a comprehensive risk assessment for each candidate, providing a quantified basis for decision-making.

Prerequisites

• Phases 1-5 completed
• All phase output files available in .oss-eval/

Required Skills

• @skills/bias-prevention/SKILL.md - Ensure objective risk scoring
• @skills/source-validation/SKILL.md - Cross-reference findings

Risk Assessment Framework

Step 1: Risk Category Definition

Assess each candidate across these dimensions:

## Risk Categories

### 1. Technical Risk
- Code quality and maintainability
- Architecture soundness
- Performance characteristics
- Security posture
- Technical debt indicators

### 2. Adoption Risk
- Learning curve
- Migration complexity
- Breaking change frequency
- Documentation quality
- Community support availability

### 3. Operational Risk
- Deployment complexity
- Monitoring/observability
- Scaling characteristics
- Incident response capability
- Upgrade path clarity

### 4. Business Risk
- Licensing implications
- Vendor lock-in potential
- Long-term viability
- Total cost of ownership
- Strategic alignment

### 5. Community Risk
- Maintainer sustainability
- Corporate backing stability
- Fork likelihood
- Ecosystem fragmentation
- Support availability

Step 2: Scoring Methodology

Quantified Scoring (1-5 Scale):

Score	Label	Definition
1	Critical	Fundamental issues, likely blockers
2	High	Significant concerns requiring mitigation
3	Moderate	Manageable issues with known workarounds
4	Low	Minor concerns, easily addressed
5	Minimal	No significant issues identified

Weighting by Importance (adjust based on context):

Category	Default Weight	Adjustable Range
Technical	25%	20-30%
Adoption	20%	15-25%
Operational	20%	15-25%
Business	20%	15-25%
Community	15%	10-20%

Step 3: Evidence-Based Scoring

For each score, provide evidence:

## Risk Score: <Candidate>

### Technical Risk: X/5

| Factor | Score | Evidence |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Code Quality | X | <finding from Phase 2/7> |
| Architecture | X | <finding from Phase 7> |
| Performance | X | <benchmarks, reports> |
| Security | X | <audit results, CVE history> |
| Tech Debt | X | <observable indicators> |

**Weighted Score**: X.X/5
**Key Concerns**: <summary>
**Mitigations**: <available options>

Step 4: Comparative Risk Matrix

Create .oss-eval/phase-06-risk/risk-assessment.md:

# Risk Assessment Report

Generated: <timestamp>
Evaluation: <topic>

## Executive Summary

| Candidate | Overall Risk | Recommendation |
|-----------|--------------|----------------|
| <A> | 🟢 Low (4.2/5) | Recommended |
| <B> | 🟡 Moderate (3.5/5) | Consider with mitigations |
| <C> | 🔴 High (2.1/5) | Not recommended |

## Detailed Risk Scores

### Score Matrix

| Category | Weight | <Candidate A> | <Candidate B> | <Candidate C> |
|----------|--------|---------------|---------------|---------------|
| Technical | 25% | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Adoption | 20% | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Operational | 20% | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Business | 20% | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Community | 15% | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| **Weighted Total** | 100% | **4.2** | **3.5** | **2.1** |

### Risk Breakdown by Candidate

#### <Candidate A>

**Overall Risk Level**: 🟢 Low

| Category | Score | Key Findings |
|----------|-------|--------------|
| Technical | 4.5/5 | <summary> |
| Adoption | 4.0/5 | <summary> |
| Operational | 4.0/5 | <summary> |
| Business | 4.5/5 | <summary> |
| Community | 4.0/5 | <summary> |

**Strengths**:
1. <strength with evidence>
2. <strength with evidence>

**Concerns**:
1. <concern with evidence>

**Mitigation Required**:
- <specific actions if adopted>

---

#### <Candidate B>
...

## Risk Comparison

### Technical Risk Comparison
<comparative analysis of technical risks>

### Adoption Risk Comparison
<comparative analysis of adoption risks>

### Business Risk Comparison
<comparative analysis of business risks>

## Critical Findings

### Blockers Identified
| Candidate | Blocker | Severity | Workaround |
|-----------|---------|----------|------------|
| <C> | <issue> | Critical | None available |

### Significant Concerns
| Candidate | Concern | Impact | Mitigation |
|-----------|---------|--------|------------|
| <B> | <issue> | Medium | <mitigation strategy> |

## Recommendations

### Proceed to Technical Deep-Dive (Phase 7+)
1. **<Candidate A>** - Recommended, lowest risk
2. **<Candidate B>** - Conditional, address concerns

### Eliminate from Consideration
1. **<Candidate C>** - <reason for elimination>

## Phase 6 Checkpoint

This completes the initial evaluation phases. At this point:

- [ ] Candidates have been discovered and filtered
- [ ] Features have been compared with [OSS]/[PAID] annotations
- [ ] Licensing has been analyzed
- [ ] Community health has been assessed
- [ ] Risks have been quantified

**Decision Point**: Proceed with top candidates to technical deep-dive?

Bias Prevention Checkpoints

Before completing this phase, verify:

• Consistent Scoring: Same rubric applied to all candidates
• Evidence-Based: Every score has supporting evidence from prior phases
• Baseline Adherence: Original criteria used, not shifted standards
• No Confirmation Bias: Findings that contradict initial impressions included
• Transparent Methodology: Scoring method documented and reproducible

Phase Completion

Update .oss-eval/config.json:

{
  "phases": {
    "6": { "status": "completed", "completedAt": "<timestamp>" }
  },
  "currentPhase": 7
}

Decision Point

After Phase 6, the user should decide whether to:

1. Continue: Proceed to Phase 7 (Architecture Analysis) with top candidates
2. Narrow: Eliminate additional candidates before deep-dive
3. Pause: Generate interim report with findings so far

Next Step

Phase 6 Complete: Risk assessment finalized.

Decision Required: Which candidates should proceed to technical deep-dive?

• Run /oss-eval:architecture to begin Phase 7 (Architecture Analysis)
• Run /oss-eval:report --interim to generate Phase 1-6 summary report