/analyze-deal

Analyze Real Estate Deal

ARGUMENTS: Optional property address or identifier

Instructions

When this command is invoked, perform a comprehensive real estate deal analysis:

1. Collect Property Information

Use AskUserQuestion to gather the following details (skip questions if provided via ARGUMENTS):

• Property type: Single-family residential (SFR), multifamily, commercial, or short-term rental (STR)
• Purchase price: Total acquisition cost
• Down payment: Dollar amount or percentage
• Monthly rent: Expected gross rent (for STR: average daily rate and occupancy percentage)
• Operating expenses: Itemized if known, otherwise use industry benchmarks (30-40% for SFR/multifamily, 40-50% for commercial, 50-60% for STR)
• Loan terms: Interest rate, loan term (years), amortization period
• Hold period: Expected years before sale (default: 10 years)
• Exit cap rate: Expected cap rate at sale (default: current + 0.5%)

2. Load Reference Material

Read the financial metrics reference: the references/financial-metrics.md file from the real-estate-investment skill in this plugin

3. Build 10-Year Pro Forma

Calculate year-by-year projections including:

• Gross rental income (assume 2-3% annual growth)
• Operating expenses (assume 3% annual inflation)
• Net Operating Income (NOI)
• Debt service (monthly P&I payment)
• Cash flow (NOI - debt service)
• Cumulative cash flow and equity buildup

4. Calculate Key Metrics

Compute all critical investment metrics:

• Cap Rate: NOI ÷ Purchase Price
• Cash-on-Cash Return: Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
• Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): NOI ÷ Annual Debt Service
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR): Time-weighted return over hold period
• Equity Multiple: Total Returns ÷ Total Investment
• Return on Investment (ROI): Total profit ÷ Total investment

5. Sensitivity Analysis

Run three scenarios:

• Bear: -10% rent, +0.5% vacancy, +1% exit cap
• Base: Input assumptions
• Bull: +10% rent, -0.5% vacancy, -0.5% exit cap

6. Present Results

Format output as clean tables showing:

• Annual cash flow projections
• Key metrics comparison (bear/base/bull)
• Investment summary with go/no-go recommendation based on:
  • Minimum acceptable returns (CoC > 8%, IRR > 12%, DSCR > 1.25)
  • Risk factors identified
  • Sensitivity to assumptions

7. Offer Code Generation

Ask if user wants:

• Python script with full pro forma model
• Excel formulas for spreadsheet implementation
• Both

If requested, generate the code/formulas and save to working directory.

Notes

• For STR properties, automatically load property-types.md reference for STR-specific expense guidance
• Flag any red flags: negative cash flow, DSCR < 1.0, cap rate compression risk
• Use clear, non-technical language in the recommendation summary