/opportunity

Opportunity Evaluation

Purpose

Take a raw signal — a data insight, user complaint, competitive move, or strategic initiative — and run it through your PM framework to produce a structured opportunity document with clear business context, customer problem framing, and prioritization.

Input

<opportunity_input> #$ARGUMENTS </opportunity_input>

If empty: Ask "What opportunity are you evaluating? Describe the signal — a data insight, user feedback, competitive move, or strategic initiative."

Step 0: Load PM Profile

cat pm-profile.yaml 2>/dev/null

If profile exists: Use the PM's preferred frameworks, vocabulary, and past patterns throughout.

If no profile: Use sensible defaults and suggest running /pm:onboard after.

Step 1: Classify the Signal

Determine the type of input:

Signal Type	Starts With	Need to Figure Out
User insight	What (observed behavior)	Is this a real problem? Who, where, why?
Data insight	Where (metric anomaly)	What's causing it? Who, why?
Competitive move	External pressure	Is this relevant? Should we react?
Strategic initiative	Business direction	What customer problem maps to this?

Use AskUserQuestion tool if the signal type is ambiguous.

Step 2: Research Phase (Parallel)

Launch these agents in parallel:

• Task opportunity-researcher: Search docs/opportunities/ and docs/compounds/ for similar past opportunities. What did we learn? What worked?
• Task competitive-landscape: If relevant, research competitive positioning and market context.

Step 3: Frame the Customer Problem

Use the PM's preferred problem framing (from pm-profile.yaml). Default: 5-question framework.

Ask and answer (collaboratively with the user):

1. What is the problem? — Observable pain, not assumed need
2. Who are we solving it for? — Specific persona and segment
3. How does it impact strategy? — Connection to business mission/growth model
4. How do we know this is a problem? — Evidence (data, user quotes, support tickets)
5. Why do we think this is happening? — Root cause hypothesis

Frame as a How Might We statement:

"How might we [enable/improve/reduce] [outcome] for [persona] by [approach]?"

Step 4: Evaluate Business Context

Assess along three dimensions:

Monetization Potential

• Revenue opportunity (quantify if possible)
• Retention impact
• Expansion/upsell potential
• Cost reduction

Strategic Fit

• Alignment with product vision
• Platform/cross-BU leverage
• Defensibility contribution (reference Hamilton 7 Powers if PM uses them)

Competitive Pressure

• Competitor activity in this space
• Market timing
• Risk of NOT doing this

Step 5: Prioritize the Opportunity

Evaluate using the PM's preferred framework. Default:

Dimension	Assessment
Impact potential	How big is the expected return?
Time to return	How quickly will we see results?
Compounding vs linear	Does this enable future bets?
Multi-outcome impact	Does it serve multiple business objectives?
Differentiation value	Differentiator, MMR, or Neutralizer?
Order of operations	Must this happen before other things?

Risk vs Impact Classification

• High Risk, High Impact — Big Bets
• High Risk, Low Impact — Duds (avoid)
• Low Risk, High Impact — No Brainers
• Low Risk, Low Impact — Quick Wins

Step 6: Reference Past Patterns

If PM profile has project_patterns:

• Find the most similar past opportunity
• Show: "This looks similar to [past project]. That one achieved [outcome]. Key learning: [insight]."

If no past patterns: Skip this step.

Step 7: Generate Opportunity Document

Write to docs/opportunities/YYYY-MM-DD-<kebab-case-name>.md:

---
date: YYYY-MM-DD
signal_type: [user_insight | data_insight | competitive | strategic]
persona: "[target persona]"
business_objective: "[primary business objective]"
classification: "[differentiator | mmr | neutralizer]"
impact_estimate: "[high | medium | low]"
confidence: "[high | medium | low]"
status: "evaluated"
---

# [Opportunity Title]

## Signal
[What triggered this opportunity — the raw insight]

## Customer Problem
[5-question framework output]

### How Might We
> [HMW statement]

## Business Context

### Monetization
[Revenue opportunity, retention impact, expansion potential]

### Strategic Fit
[Vision alignment, platform leverage, defensibility]

### Competitive Pressure
[Market context, competitor activity]

## Prioritization
[Impact, time to return, compounding potential, differentiation]

### Risk vs Impact: [Big Bet | No Brainer | Quick Win]

## Past Patterns
[Similar past opportunities and what we learned — or "First opportunity in this space"]

## Open Questions
[What we still need to validate]

## Next Steps
→ `/pm:solution` to design and evaluate solutions
→ `/pm:spec` if solution is already known

Post-Generation Options

Use AskUserQuestion tool:

Question: "Opportunity evaluated. What's next?"

Options:

1. Run /pm:solution — Design and evaluate solution approaches
2. Refine the opportunity — Adjust framing, add context
3. Park it — Save for later consideration
4. Compare with other opportunities — See all evaluated opportunities side by side